NEW: Recession Predictions

The economy grew 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Originally, the estimate was 2.9%. GDP numbers are revised twice, so we’ll get one more estimate for how the economy grew to close out last year.

Why it matters: While the economy is holding up well so far this year, many analysts still expect a mild recession in the middle of the year.

However: The recent strength of consumer spending and the labor market has made projections more optimistic, either for a less-severe recession, or none at all.

Learn more: Updated periodically, Economic Viewpoints provides a snapshot of the U.S. economy from the Economic Policy Division at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.